基于人口转型现实对跨越“中等收入陷阱”途径的探索——统一增长理论视角

The exploration of the way of leaping across the “middle income trap” based on the reality of population transition: From the perspective of unified growth theory

人口规模(或有效劳动规模)和技术进步的关系有助于解释经济发展不同阶段的内生转型:在"马氏陷阱"阶段,农业生产技术缓慢提高,伴随着人口逐渐增长,市场也逐步扩大,使得工业企业能承担更大的固定(创新)成本,生产创新就此启动,人类摆脱了"马氏陷阱";但经济发展到一定阶段后,又面临人口转型,可能会陷入"中等收入陷阱",此时不能再依靠单纯的人口数量增长,而是需要人力资本积累以增加有效劳动规模,进一步促进工业企业的创新,从而为摆脱"中等收入陷阱"奠定基础。有效劳动规模的扩大不再仅通过正向外溢性促进技术进步,而是通过降低工业企业的创新成本直接加快技术进步。通过建立包含农业生产(服务业)部门、工业生产部门。

The relationship between the population(or effective labor)scale and technical progress will help to explain the transition of different stages of economic development:in the"Malthusian Trap"stage,the technology of agricultural production increased slowly,the population also increased gradually,the market expanded gradually,so the industrial enterprises can afford greater fixed(innovation)cost,production innovation started,human get rid of the"Malthusian trap";After a certain stage of economic development,it would also face demographic transition,and fall into the"middle income trap",this time could no longer rely on population growth simply,but on the accumulation of human capital to increase the scale of effective labor,and further promote the innovation of industrial enterprises,thus to lay the foundation for getting rid of the"middle income trap".The expansion of the scale of effective labor would not only promote technological progress through positive spillovers,but also speed up technological progress directly by reducing the cost of innovation of industrial enterprises.Based on the establishment of the two period overlapping generations model including four departments(agricultural production(service)department,industry department,household sector and government),the results of numerical simulation analysis showed that adequately prolonging the period of labor,reducing the contribution rate of the old-age security account in the aged and the degree of bequest were beneficial to encourage the residents to increase their labor supply,accumulate human capital,and then promote technological progress,and finally get rid of the growth trap.