建筑消防水系统灭火可靠性动态评估模型研究

Reliability dynamic assessment model of water fire-extinguishing system

水位、水压、流量、阀门开启情况等运行状态参数是决定消防水灭火系统灭火可靠性的关键因素,基于对水灭火系统运行可靠性影响因素的研究,构建了用于评估灭火可靠性的贝叶斯网络推理模型。推理模型将影响系统灭火可靠性的因素分为给水设施可靠性、灭火系统管网供水可靠性、灭火设施启动可靠性、阀门开启状态等四个方面。网络结构图代表了监测因子与子系统可靠性的关联关系。节点变量状态值的分级方法和先验概率值参考了水灭火系统相关设计标准。根据监测因子对子系统可靠性的影响分别设置了各节点的条件概率表。应用表明,通过物联网技术实时监测灭火系统运行状态参数,将实时的状态参数信息输入到评估模型,可以实现动态评估系统灭火可靠性。

The running state parameters such as water level,water pressure,flow rate and valve opening condition are the key factors to decide the reliability of fire extinguishing system.In this paper,Bayesian assessment networks are constructed to evaluate the reliability of water fire-extinguishing system in building,based on the study on influencing factors of working reliability of water fire extinguishing system.The reasoning model divides the factors affecting the reliability of the system into 4 aspects,such as the reliability of water supply facilities,the reliability of the water supply system of the fire extinguishing system,the reliability of the fire extinguishing facilities and the opening state of the valve.The network structure diagram represents the correlation between monitoring factors and subsystem reliability.The classification methods and the prior probability values of the node variables refer to the relevant design standards of the water fire extinguishing system.The conditional probability table of each node is set up according to the influence of monitoring factors on the reliability of subsystems.The application shows that Internet of things can be used to monitor operation condition parameters of fire extinguishing system,and input real-time state parameter information into evaluation model,so that the dynamic evaluation reliability can be realized.