基于小波分析的物资供应商运营风险分析

Risk Analysis of Material Supplier Operation Based on Wavelet Analysis

物质供应是电力企业安全稳定发展的重要保障,供应商产能不足和违规转包成为物资供应中重要的风险因素,科学合理的物资供应商运营风险预警成为当前电网公司重点关注问题。本文首先综合评价供应商产能情况,其次利用小波分析对供应商近一年的实际用电量进行小波分解,借助ARIMA算法对小波系数进行拟合并预测,通过实例验证了该方法的合理性,能够实现更加全面地对供应商运营风险进行预判。

Material supply is an important guarantee for the safe and stable development of electric power enterprises, which causes insufficient capacity of suppliers and irregular subcontracting to become an important risk factor in material supply. Scientific and reasonable operational risk early warning of material suppliers has become the focus of current power grid companies. Firstly, the paper synthetically evaluates the supplier’s production capacity, secondly, it uses wavelet analysis to decompose the supplier’s actual electricity consumption in the past year, and uses ARIMA algorithm to fit and predict the wavelet coefficients. The rationality of this method is verified by an example, which can realize more comprehensive prediction of the supplier’s operational risk.