特朗普政府需要什么样的全球化

What Kind of Globalization Does the Trump Administration Want?

特朗普政府倡导反全球化是对美国民粹主义诉求的呼应,具有内在的必然性。但从全球的角度来看,这并不意味着民粹主义和反全球化具有合理性。在民粹主义和反全球化的背后是美国对丧失全球化领导权的担忧和对现行国际经济规则的不满。这种不满不仅体现在对多边主义规则之上,而且体现在对区域主义规则之上。不过,基于经济全球化的双重属性与特朗普政府的执政理念,特朗普政府并非要"去全球化",而是要构建新型全球化或"再全球化"。这种新型全球化是一种排他性的全球化:其主导者是美国及其有共同利益的"志同道合者";其原则是以"公平贸易"理念取代自由贸易理念;其手段是以双边机制替代多边机制;其目标是维护美国(及其盟友)领先者的地位,阻止后来者实现赶超。与排他性全球化相对应的是包容性全球化,反映了全球经济中的后来者或发展中国家的利益诉求。未来全球化与全球治理改革的发展方向将取决于这两种模式的博弈结果:它们各自的被认可度、可行性以及两者能否找到最大公约数。

The Trump administration's anti-globalization stance is a reaction to the American populism appeals and has inherent necessity.But from a global perspective,this does not mean that the populism and anti-globalization are justified.The populism and anti-globalization reflect the United States'fear of losing global leadership and dissatisfaction with current international economic rules.Moreover,the dissatisfaction is not only reflected in the multilateral rules,but also on the regional rules.However,given the dual attribute of globalization and the Trump administration's governing philosophy,we believe that the Trump administration is not to“de-globalize”but to“re-globalize”or to build a new type of globalization.This new type of globalization is an exclusive globalization:its leaders are the United States and its“like-minded partners”with common interests;its principle is to replace free trade with fair trade;its means is to replace multilateral mechanism with bilateral mechanisms.;its goal is to maintain the competitive advantage of the United States(and its allies)and prevent latecomers from achieving catch-up.Corresponding to exclusive globalization is inclusive globalization,reflecting the interests of latecomers or developing countries in the global economy.So,the future direction of globalization and global governance reform will depend on competing results of these two models:acceptance,feasibility,and whether the two can find the greatest common divisor.