论特朗普的对华政策及其决策环境

Trump's China Policy and Its Decision-Making Environment

特朗普政府的对华政策代表了20世纪70年代以来美国对华政策的转变。美国把中国和俄罗斯并称为"修正主义的竞争者",认为国家间的战略竞争已成为美国国家安全的主要担忧。这些判断是当前美国两党形成的对华新共识。在美国看来,国家安全竞争正在广泛渗入经济和商业之中,中美最重要的竞争领域是高科技;在国家的支持下,中国可能取得高科技发展的优势,因此美国必须提前予以制止。特朗普用反全球化和"美国优先"的方法来解决美国当前的问题,造成美国内外政策的转变,亦使中美合作领域变得极为狭窄,合作的一面在下降,竞争的一面在急剧上升。尽管中美关系还没有滑落到"新冷战"和"脱钩",但已经处于一个转折点,不可能回到以往了。因为美国认定,中国已经是同美国平起平坐的对手,中国的崛起损害了美国的利益。美国两党建制派都强调:美国必须改变思维,接受并适应中国成为全球经济强国的现实,同时调整自身的战略和策略,以继续稳固其全球领导地位。鉴于当前美国国内的主流看法和决策环境,如果我们处理中美关系的方法得当,在竞争中维持比以往较低水平的、相对稳定的中美关系还是可能的。

The Trump administration's China policy represents a shift in U.S.policy toward China since the 1970s.The United States refers to China and Russia as“revisionist competitors”,and believes that it is strategic competition among nations that becomes the foremost concern for U.S.national security.These judgments on China formed shared views between the two major parties in the United States.To the United States,national security competition is widely permeating into the economy and commerce.The most important competition between China and the United States focuses on high technology.With the support of the state,China may gain the advantage of high-tech development,so the United States must stop it in advance.Trump uses anti-globalization and“American first”methods to solve the current problems in the United States,leading to a shift in U.S.domestic and foreign policies,and extremely narrowing down the field of Sino-US cooperation.And in their relationship,the cooperation side is declining,and competition side is rising dramatically.Although Sino-US relations are not slipping into the“new cold war”and“delinkage”,they are already at a turning point,and are impossible to return to the past,as the United States has determined that China has become an equal rival to the United States,and China's rise has already harmed the interests of the United States.Both parties in the United States emphasize that the United States must change its thinking,accept and adapt to the reality that China has grown as a global economic power,and adjust its own strategies and tactics in order to continue its global leadership.Given the current mainstream views and decision-making environment in the United States,if we handle the Sino-U.S.relations properly,it is still possible to maintain a lower level and relatively stable Sino-US relationship in the competition.