关税传导、国内运输成本与零售价格——基于高铁建设的理论与实证研究

Tariff Transmission, Domestic Transport Costs and Retail Prices

本文基于商品进口关税与国内消费市场价格信息,从关税传导角度分析高铁建设对贸易开放的促进作用。本文先从理论上构建高铁建设能够加强进口关税下降对国内零售市场商品价格影响的模型,以及这种机制对不同性质商品价格在不同城市影响的差异。然后通过匹配中国进口商品关税与国内对应商品零售价格,获取了139个地级城市和75种零售商品的有关数据,运用差分法(DID)进行实证检验,首次从最终零售价格角度直接衡量了高铁的释放效应,深入探讨了高铁建设对关税传导的影响,以及这种影响在不同城市和不同性质商品之间的差异性。实证研究首先确定了关税传导过程和机制,证明了进口关税下降有助于降低进口商品价格,提高进口商品种类和数量,加强国内市场竞争,降低国内消费品零售价格。高铁建设对这种关税传导不仅存在显著的正向效应,而且对不同地区和不同产品的价格影响也存在明显的差异,相对易腐商品和内陆城市而言,高铁建设对关税传导的促进作用对不易腐商品和沿海港口城市表现得更加突出。

China has reduced its tariff and non-tariff barriers since the 1990s as the main components of its trade liberalization policy.This has led to a large amount of imported foreign goods,resulting in more diversity in product selection and lower prices because of an unprecedented competitive influence on the corresponding domestic commodities.Tariff transmission,reflected by the extent of tariff reductions'impact on the domestic retail market,can differ significantly across regions because of geographical characteristics and economic development.It is necessary and vital to analyze tariff transmission and its various effects on retail markets because the prices of consumer goods are closely related to residents'lives.In addition,there are controversies over the economic performance of high-speed rail(HSR)construction in China.HSR diverts passengers from regular trains,releasing transportation resources for freight and improving the efficiency of traditional railway transportation.Reduced costs and time from ports resulting from HSR may increase the consumer market competition caused by trade openness.In this paper,we explore the diverse influences of import tariff declines on retail markets from the perspective of HSR construction.Studies often concentrate on enterprise performance from the production perspective and intermediate market by trade liberalization,such as trading behavior(Antoniades,2016).However,the immediate impact of tariff reductions on China's domestic retail markets is still unknown due to a lack of data.Some studies focusing on tariff transmission mechanism both ignore regional domestic differences and rely on resident survey data to calculate commodity prices without theoretical support(Nicita,2009;Marchand,2012;Han et al.,2016).We accurately uncover the tariff mechanism by matching the retail prices of commodities in different cities monitored by the China Price Information Center with import tariffs.Furthermore,we analyze the tariff transmission mechanism for different areas and products by combining HSR data with information on cities.This enriches our understanding of tariff transmission with urban heterogeneity in one economy.By directly considering the impact of HSR on consumer goods prices from a micro perspective,we measure residents'welfare due to HSR's contribution to rail resources,adding to research on HSR construction.To analyze the positive effect of HSR on trade openness in China,we first build a theoretical model indicating how tariff reductions influence domestic retail prices that allows for different effects for different cities and goods.Then,we use the difference-in-differences approach to analyze the relationship between tariff reductions,HSR and retail prices to understand how HSR contributes to tariff transmission and how this effect varies for different commodities and different locations.The empirical analysis confirms the existence of the transmission mechanism;import tariff reductions are beneficial for lowering local retail prices via increased competition.We also show that HSR has a positive influence on tariff transmission,with the effect varying for different goods in different locations.The positive effect is more significant for non-perishable goods and coastal cities than for perishable goods and inland cities.This paper has important policy implications.Our results indicate that HSR construction promotes the function of trade openness,with tariff reductions leading to lower prices of consumer goods in domestic markets because of competition.The government should pay more attention to the construction of infrastructure and should alleviate pressure on the railway passenger transport to release capacity for freight so that trade openness can have a more effective impact on domestic consumer prices and improve the welfare of residents by providing a wider range of commodities at lower prices.