山东省制造业碳排放驱动因素研究——基于GDIM方法

GDIM-Based Research on Driving Factors of Carbon Emissions from Manufacturing Industry in Shandong Province

在大力倡导低碳发展的背景下,面对国际国内碳排放达峰目标的双重压力,实现山东省碳排放2027年达峰目标,制造业的转型发展成为关键。文章以山东省2000-2016年制造业碳排放作为研究对象,采用广义迪氏指数分解法对能源、投资、产值等碳排放演变驱动因素进行分解,并进行综合性、阶段性以及贡献值累积性分析,发现产出规模、能耗规模、投资规模对碳排放具较强的促进作用、碳强度效应较强的抑制作用以及碳效率效应比较微弱的抑制作用。基于此,提出引导制造业投资流向、产业结构能源结构双调并举、碳强度和能源强度实现双降的碳减排措施。

The rapid development of manufacturing in Shandong Province is accompanied by high carbon emissions and high pollution.Under the background of vigorously advocating low-carbon development,in the face of the dual pressure of international and domestic carbon emission peaks,and to achieve the goal of carbon emission in Shandong Province by 2027,the transformation and development of the manufacturing industry has become the sticking point.This paper takes Shandong Province’s manufacturing carbon emissions from 2000 to 2016 as the research object.It uses the Generalized Divisia Index method to decompose the evolution drivers of carbon emissions such as energy ,investment,and production value.Comprehensive analysis,periodic analysis,and cumulative analysis of contribution values are conducted.It is found that yield,energy consumption and investment have a positive effect on carbon emissions;and carbon intensity effect factors have a strong inhibitory effect;carbon efficiency effect factors have a weak inhibition effect.In response to this,it is proposed to guide the flow of manufacturing investment,implement the dual-tuning of the industrial structure and energy structure,and reduce carbon intensity and energy intensity,so as to achieve carbon reduction.