基于SARIMA模型的贵阳市尾号限行政策影响研究

Study on the Influence of Guiyang License Plate Limit Policy Based on SARIMA Model

研究SARIMA模型在城市机动车普通号牌尾号限行取消后号牌增量预测中的应用价值。通过收集贵阳市2011年7月至2018年7月专段号牌和普通号牌的新增办理量数据,建立乘积季节性SARIMA模型,对2018年取消普通号牌尾号限行政策后普通号牌新增办理量进行预测。SARIMA模型能够较好地拟合每月普通号牌新增办理量的情况,平均相对误差为0.0919。结合新政策实行后贵阳市一环内号牌分析,为贵阳市号牌限行政策的制定提供数据支撑和交通治理依据。

This paper studies the application value of SARIMA model in predicting the increment of city car's ordinary license plate after the end number limit is cancelled.By collecting the new traffic volume of special section and ordinary license plate from July 2011 to July 2018 in Guiyang,SARIMA model was established to predict the new traffic volume of ordinary license plate after canceling the policy of ending number limit of ordinary license plate in 2018.The SARIMA model can well fit the monthly increase of the number of ordinary license plates,and the average relative error is 0.0919.Combined with the analysis of the license plate in the inner ring of Guiyang after the implementation of the new policy,this paper provides data support and traffic management basis for the formulation of the policy of license plate restriction in Guiyang.