企业特征、战略差异度和分析师盈余预测——来自中国深市A股市场的经验证据

Enterprise Characteristic,Strategic Differences and Analyst Earnings Forecast——Evidence from the A-share Market in Shenzhen, China

选取2007-2015年深市主板A股上市公司为样本,实证分析了企业特征、战略差异度与分析师盈余预测之间的关系。结果表明,公司战略偏离程度越高,分析师盈余预测的准确性越低。进一步研究发现,较高的显性代理成本会增强战略差异度对分析师盈余预测准确性的影响,而高质量的信息披露则会削弱这种影响。从企业特征的角度分析了公司战略选择对分析师盈余预测的影响,对促进市场资源有效配置具有重要的意义。

This paper selects the A-share listed company on the Main Market of Shenzhen Stock Market from 2007 to 2015 as a sample, and empirically analyzes the relationship between enterprise characteristics, strategic differences and analyst earnings forecast. The results show that the higher the company’s strategic deviation, the lower the accuracy of analyst earnings forecasts. Further studies have found that higher explicit agency costs will increase the impact of strategic differences on the accuracy of analyst earnings forecasts, while high-quality information disclosure will reduce the impact. This article analyzes the impact of corporate strategic choice on analysts’ earnings forecasts from the perspective of corporate characteristics, and has important significance for promoting the effective allocation of market resources.