基于局部加权线性回归的交通事故数据分析

Traffic accident data analysis based on locally weighted linear regression

结合我国1998—2016年交通事故有人员伤亡的事故数据,对未来若干年的事故数据走向进行预测.利用局部加权线性回归方法,建立预测模型,预测结果包含2017年以后每年的交通事故数及死亡人数.分析了1998年至2016年的交通事故数发展趋势,并初步探究其背后的原因.该预测及分析结果可为国家道路交通安全管理提供参考.

According to the accident data involving casualties in traffic accidents in China from 1998 to2016, the trend of accident data in the future few years is predicted. The locally weighted linear regression method is used to establish a prediction model. The predicted results include the number of traffic accidents and deaths per year after 2017. The development trend of traffic accidents from 1998 to 2016 is analyzed,and so as the main cause of the trend. The results can provide reference for the national road traffic safety management.