基于空间参数的中国沿海地区台风灾害暴露性分析

Analysis of Typhoon Disaster Exposure in Coastal Areas of China Based on Geospatial Parameters

以中国沿海地区作为研究区,利用1949—2016年的历史台风资料,建立基于地理空间参数的多元线性回归模型,在此基础上,分析该地区的台风灾害暴露性。研究结果表明:中国沿海地区台风灾害暴露性空间差异性显著,整体呈现从南部沿海向北部沿海逐步降低的格局;属于同一个省份或者纬度相近的各研究单元,呈现距海岸线距离越近暴露性越大的特点,分析结果与实际情况较吻合。

Using the historical typhoon data from 1949 to 2016 in the coastal areas of China, we established a multiple linear regression model based on geospatial parameters, and analyzed the exposure of typhoon disasters in the study area. As the results show, the spatial difference of typhoon disaster exposure in China′s coastal areas is significant, featuring a gradual diminishing exposure from the southern coast to the northern coast. The study units belonging to the same province or similar latitudes show the characteristics of the closer to the coastline, the greater the exposure. The analysis results correspond with the actual situation and can serve as references and basic information for the selection of typhoon disaster risk indicators and the improvement of assessment methods.