通化玉米黏虫发生程度气象等级预报方法

Meteorological Forecast Method for the Occurrence Degree of Mythimna separata Walker in Tonghua of Jilin Province

将1999~2015年玉米田间黏虫发生量以轻度、中度、重度3个等级划分,同时依黏虫生活习性将相关气象条件进行相应等级划分,并将黏虫发生程度与相关气象条件进行等级间相关分析,得出通化市黏虫发生程度与5月下旬~6月中旬降水量相关密切。又由于黏虫是迁入的成虫形成的危害种群,因此黏虫的发生程度又与5月下旬~6月上旬诱蛾量关系密切。利用多元回归统计方法建立通化市黏虫发生程度气象等级预测模型,模型的复相关系数r为0.735,通过α=0.05的显著性检验。模型的拟合回报确率为82.4%。利用2016年资料对模型进行试报检验,试报结果正确。模型具有较高的准确率,能够满足预报和服务的需求。

The occurrence degree of Mythimna separata Walker was divided into three grades(namely mild,moderate and severe occurrence),and related meteorological conditions divided into several grades according to the lifehabit of Mythimna separata Walker during 1999-2015,then a correlation analysis on the occurrence degree of Mythimna separata Walker and related meteorological conditions was made in the paper.It was found out that theoccurrence degree of Mythimna separata Walker was good related to the precipitation during late May to early June.Due to the fact that Mythimna separata Walker is a dangerous species formed by the migrating adult,the occurrencedegree of Mythimna separata Walker was also closely related to the pheromone catches during late May to earlyJune.The meteorological forecast model for the occurrence degree of Mythimna separata Walker in Tonghua was established by using the multivariate regression statistical method,and the model has a multiple correlation coefficientof 0.735,meanwhile the simulation precision of the model was up to 82.4% at the 0.05 significance level.Using thedata of 2016 to test the model,the test results were all correct.Therefore the forecast model has a certain level of usability,and it can satisfy the requirement of forecast service.