基于博弈论集对分析的空管风险态势评估

Evaluation of air traffic control risk situation based on game theory and set pair analysis

为有效评估空管运行风险,整体化处理评估系统的确定与不确定因素,建立基于博弈论和集对分析(SPA)的风险评估模型。按照系统工程方法,筛选出18个底层管制运行风险评价指标;利用层次分析法(AHP)确定各指标的主观权重,通过熵权法计算指标的客观权重,用博弈论综合权重确定方法得到指标的综合权重;根据模型计算出各指标的SPA结果,评判系统风险态势,通过计算联系数的各阶偏联系数得到风险的动态发展趋势。实例仿真结果表明:基于博弈论集对分析的模型对空管安全系统风险评估以及趋势分析具有可行性和有效性。

In order to effectively evaluate the operational risk in air traffic management,the determinants and uncertainties of the evaluation system were treated integrally and a risk assessment model based on SPA of game theory was built.First,according to the method of system engineering,18 risk assessment indexes of the underlying operation were identified.Then the subjective weights of the indexes were determined by analytic hierarchy process(AHP),and their objective weights were calculated by entropy weight method,and then the comprehensive weights of the indexes were obtained by game theory comprehensive weight method.According to the model,the set pair potential analysis results of the indexes were calculated,and the risk situation of the system was judged.Then the dynamic development trend of the risk was obtained by calculating the partial connection number of each order of the connection number.The simulation results show that the proposed set pair analysis model is effective at assessing the air traffic control risk and analyzing the trend in development of air traffic management.