多层次灰色综合评价法在储罐失效概率评估中的应用

Application of grey multi-hierarchy comprehensive evaluation method in failure probability assessment of storage tanks

为更科学地研究我国常压原油储罐失效概率的影响因素,提出基于层次分析法(AHP)和灰色综合评价模型的多层次灰色综合评价法。从基于风险的检验(RBI)失效概率评估过程出发,建立常压原油储罐的失效概率数学模型;在系数修正法的基础上,将设备修正因子划分为一级目标层A、二级要素层B和三级指标层C,利用AHP法计算出各评价指标的权重;引入灰色综合评价模型评价各指标;将多层次灰色综合评价法运用到一个实际案例中。结果表明:该方法处理多因素、多层次的综合评价时,可以避免传统打分法可能造成的风险遮蔽问题,同时可以得出各因子对于设备修正系数的影响大小排序。

This article attempts to research the factors affecting the failure probabilities of the atmospheric oil storage tanks in China more scientifically.A multi-hierarchy gray comprehensive evaluation method was developed based on the AHP and gray comprehensive evaluation method.Based on the RBI technology,a model was built for assessing failure probabilities of the atmospheric oil storage tanks.On the basis of coefficient correction method,the evaluation index system was divided into three levels,the first grade target layer A,the second grade element layer B,and the third grade index layer C.The weights of the evaluation factors can be calculated by using AHP.The gray comprehensive evaluation method was applied to a practical case.The results gained from the trial application demonstrate that the covered risk problems caused by traditional scoring ways can be avoided by using the evaluation method developed by the authors,that at the same time,the model ranks the factors affecting the equipment correction coefficient.