科学认识中央与地方收入划分改革——基于增强收入稳定性的视角

A Scientific Understanding on the Revenue-sharing Reform between the Central and Local Governments in China

完善政府收入体系,中央和地方两者同等重要。分析中央一般公共预算收入增长情况发现,2012～2017年,中央一般公共预算收入增长率开始呈下行势态。分析中央一般公共预算收入的结构发现,税收收入占比超过90%。中央税收收入从收入来源角度看,共享税收入占比为70%。从税种结构看,中央税收收入有两大特征:一是货物和劳务税收入占比较高;二是对外税收占比较高。在区域分布方面,中央税收具有较高的集中度。此外,分税制改革至今,中央一般公共预算收入占全国一般公共预算收入的比重呈下行势态。我国中央一般公共预算收入具有不稳定性,这将带来多种不利后果:一是迫使中央财政走入发债度日道路;二是压缩了中央加大对地方转移支付的空间;三是将削弱中央宏观经济调控能力。增强中央一般公共预算收入稳定性的核心是增强中央税收收入的稳定性,而增强中央税收收入稳定性可从稳住中央对外税收和科学认识中央与地方收入划分改革目标和改革内容两方面入手。

Both the central and sub-national governments play equally important role in improving the governmental revenue system. The analysis of the increase of the central government’s general public budget revenue(2012~2017) shows its growth rate tends to head downward. The analysis of the structure of the central government’s general public budget revenue shows the proportion of the tax revenue accounts for over 90%. From the perspective of the source of the central government’s tax revenue, the proportion of the shared tax revenues accounts for 70%. From the perspective of the tax category structure, the central government’s tax revenue features that both the proportion of the goods and services tax and the proportion of foreign tax are relatively high. With respect to the regional distribution, the central government’s tax revenue features high concentration.In addition, the proportion of the central government’s general public budget revenue in the national general public budget revenue has presented a downward trend since the Tax-sharing Reform. The central government’s general public budget revenue turns out to be unstable, which will bring about various adverse consequences. Firstly, the central government will have to raise debts for operating. Secondly, the scale of transfer payment from the central government to the subnational governments will be cut down. Thirdly, the ability of the central government’s macroeconomic regulation and control will be impaired. The key to strengthen the stability of the central government’s general public budget revenue is to strengthen the stability of the central government’s tax revenue. Strengthening the stability of the central government’s tax revenue can be addressed by making foreign tax at the central level stable and understanding the goals and contents of the revenue-sharing reform between the central and sub-national governments in a scientific fashion.