我国社保基金财务偿付能力评价指标构建及风险测度

Evaluation Index Construction and Risk Measurement of the Financial Solvency of Social Security Fund in China

党的十八届三中全会和十九大报告提出按照兜底线、织密网、建机制的要求,建立更加公平可持续的社会保障制度。可持续性则应依靠社保基金财务偿付能力测算及评价。本文将社保基金资金管理中应用的收付实现制和权责发生制的理念相结合,建立基于收支缺口和隐性负债的社保基金财务偿付能力评价理论框架和评价指标,应用ARIMAX等数理统计方法对社保基金收支缺口进行综合因素的预测,通过数据结果与实际情况的匹配程度验证评价指标的合理性,进一步考虑了财政补贴及投资收益对偿付能力的影响程度,测度和分析政府财政风险,最后提出构建完善社保基金财务偿付能力以及降低相应财政风险的相关对策和建议。

The Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee and the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China put forward the requirements of establishing a fairer and more sustainable social security system, perfecting the system of social security investment and improving the social security budget system. Sustainability should rely on the calculation of the social solvency of the social security fund, that is, the prediction of revenue and expenditure gap and implicit debt. In this paper, combining the realization of cash basis in the fiscal managem ent and accrual basis in the finan cial management of the social security fund, the theoretical framework and evaluation index of the social solvency evaluation of the social security fund are established. Mathematical and statistical methods such as ARIMAX are used to predict, measure and analyze the solvency risk. Further the paper considers the impact of the financial subsidies and investment returns on risk, and verifies the matching between the data results and the actual situation. Finally, the author puts forward some countermeasures and application suggestions on how to build the evaluation system and risk measure of the financial solvency of social security funds.