基于SWAT模型对洙赵新河流域径流的模拟研究

Study on runoff simulation in Zhuzhaoxin River Basin by SWAT model

洙赵新河是南四湖流域重要的入湖河流,研究该流域的径流对南四湖湖西平原区具有重要意义。选用SWAT分布式水文模型,通过SWAT-CUP程序的Sufi-2算法进行参数率定、敏感性分析与不确定性分析,模拟了洙赵新河流域2008-2014年的月径流过程。结果表明:月径流在校准期和验证期的相关系数R2和NS效率系数均大于0. 85,表明SWAT模型在洙赵新河流域适用性较好;根据敏感性分析结果发现水文相关参数与径流有不同程度的相关性,其中植被蒸腾补偿系数、河岸调蓄的基流α因子、浅层地下水径流系数等13个参数最为敏感;在气象站点密度较小的地区,引入CMADS气象数据集作为流域水文模型的驱动数据集,取得了理想的效果。

Zhuzhaoxin River is an important river in Nansi Lake Basin,and it is of great significance to study the runoff of the river basin and the west plain area of Nansi Lake.This paper chooses a distributed hydrological model-SWAT and uses parameter sensitivity analysis,parameter rate determination and uncertainty analysis based on Sufi-2 algorithm of SWAT-CUP program,to simulate Zhuzhaoxin River Basin monthly runoff process in 2008-2014.The results showed that:The correlation coefficient R2 and NS efficiency coefficient of the monthly runoff and the validation period were all greater than 0.85,indicated that the SWAT model was applicable in Zhuzhaoxin River Basin.The sensitivity analysis results showed that several hydrological parameters have different degree of correlation with runoff,with 13 the most sensitive,such as compensation coefficient of vegetation transpiration,the base flow ofαfactor of the bank regulation,and shallow groundwater runoff coefficient.The introduction of the CMADS meteorological data set as the driving data set of the hydrological model in the basin has achieved the desired effect in the area with relatively low meteorological station density.