基于理想点法的江西省水资源承载力评价

Evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in Jiangxi Province based on ideal point method

在综合考虑水资源承载力主要影响因素的基础上,从水资源子系统、社会子系统、经济子系统和生态环境子系统四个方面选取16个定量指标作为评价因素,为了降低层次分析法(AHP)的主观性,采用熵权法修正评价指标初始权重,基于理想点法原理计算贴近度,构建水资源承载力评价模型。将该方法运用于江西省水资源承载力现状评价。结果表明:从2011-2015年江西省各地市水资源承载力整体呈上升趋势,地域差距比较明显,其中南昌、赣州、宜春和吉安等人口聚集且经济发展迅速的地区水资源承载力相对较差,与江西省水资源承载力的实际情况相吻合,对江西及各地市水资源规划利用和"河长制"的推行与管理具有一定的借鉴和指导性作用。

Comprehensive considering the main influencing factors of water resources carrying capacity,16 quantitative indicators were selected from the four aspects:the water resources subsystem,social subsystems,economic subsystems,and ecological environment subsystems.In order to reduce the subjectivity level of analytic hierarchy process(AHP),the entropy weight method was used to modify the initial weight of evaluation index,the closeness was calculated based on the principle of ideal point method,and an evaluation model of water resources carrying capacity was constructed.This method was applied to the evaluation of the water resources carrying capacity in Jiangxi Province,and the results showed that the water resources carrying capacity of all cities in Jiangxi Province showed an increasing trend from 2011 to2015.The geographical gap was obvious,especially,the cities of Nanchang,Ganzhou,Yichun,and Ji’an are with poor water resources carrying capacity,which has large population and rapid economic growths.This result is consistent with the actual situation of water resources carrying capacity in Jiangxi Province,and can guide the planning and utilization of water resources of Jiangxi Province and the belonging cities and the implementation and management of the"River chief system".