气候变化和人类活动对沣河流域径流量影响的定量评估

Quantitative evaluation on the impact of climate variability and human activities on runoff changes in the Fenghe River Basin

以沣河流域为例,采用小波分析法、累积距平法分析了该流域1965-2016年径流量和降水量的变化趋势,揭示了径流量变化过程中存在1988和1997年两个突变点。应用累积量斜率变化率比较法分析了不同时期降水量和人类活动对沣河流域径流量变化的相对贡献率。结果表明:以1965-1987年为基准期,1988-1996年降水量和人类活动对径流量减小的相对贡献率分别为37. 69%和62. 31%; 1997-2016年降水量和人类活动对径流量减小的相对贡献率分别为-11. 92%和111. 92%。

The wavelet analysis and cumulative anomaly analysis method were used to analyze the changing trends of runoff and precipitation during 1965-2016 in the Fenghe River Basin.Two mutational points in the runoff in the Fenghe River Basin in 1988 and 1997 were revealed.And the slope change ratio of cumulative quantity was adopted to estimate the relative contribution rates of precipitation and human activities on runoff changes in different time periods.Taking 1965-1987 as a reference period,we obtained the contribution rates of precipitation and human activities to the decreased runoff from1988 to 1996 which were 37.69%and 62.31%respectively,and-11.92%and 111.92%in 1997-2016.