不同指南的手术指征预测恶性黏液性胰腺囊性肿瘤的性能评估

Efficacy evaluation of the indications for surgery in different guidelines for predicting malignancy of mucinous pancreatic cystic neoplasms

目的评价Sendai指南.Fukuoka指南和胰腺囊性疾病诊治指南(中国指南)的手术指征预测恶性黏液性胰腺囊性肿瘤(PCN)的性能。方法回顾性分析2003年1月至2017年4月间上海交通大学医学院附属瑞金医院行手术治疗且病理确诊的196例黏液性PCN患者,比较恶性与良性黏液性PCN患者间临床病理参数的差异,计算Sendai指南.Fukuoka指南和中国指南的手术指征预测恶性黏液性PCN的准确度、敏感度、特异度、阳性预测值和阴性预测值,结果196例PCN中39例(19.9%)为恶性,157例(80.1%)为良性。两组患者间的年龄、腹痛、黄疸、胰腺炎症状、肿瘤实性成分、胰管直径、肿瘤部位、肿瘤直径>3 cm、血清CA19-9水平的差异均有统计学意义(P值均<0.05),而性别分布、肿瘤直径、壁结节、黏液性囊腺瘤(MCN)与导管内乳头状黏液瘤(IPMN)比例的差异均无统计学意义。165例(84.2%)满足Sendai指南的手术指征,153例(78.1%)满足中国指南的手术指征,仅61例(31.1%)满足Fukuoka指南的手术指征。39例恶性黏液性PCN的患者均满足Sendai指南和中国指南的手术指征,35例满足Fukuoka指南的手术指征。Fukuoka指南的手术指征预测恶性黏液性PCN的准确度、敏感度、特异度、阳性预测值、阴性预测值分别为84.7%、89.7%、83.4%,57.4%和97%,Sendai指南分别为35.7%、100%、19.8%,23.6%和100%,中国指南分别为41.8%,100%,27.4%,25.5%和100%o结论中国指南的手术指征预测恶性黏液性PCN的性能稍优于Sendai指南,但均会导致多数患者行不必要的手术切除。Fukuoka指南的准确度最高,但漏诊率达10.3%。

Objective To evaluate the performance of the Sendai Guidelines,Fukuoka Guidelines and Pancreatic Cystic Lesions Management Guidelines (Chinese guidelines) in predicting malignant mucinous pancreatic cystic neoplasms (PCN).Methods A retrospective analysis of 196 patients,who received surgery and were pathologically identified as PCN or intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN),underwent surgical resection in Ruijin Hospital affiliated with Shanghai Jiao Tong University from January 2003 to April 2017 was performed.The differences on clinical and pathological parameters between malignant mucinous and benign mucinous PCN were compared.The accuracy,sensitivity,specificity,positive predictive value (PPV)and negative predictive value (NPV) of the indications for surgery in the Sendai,Fukuoka and Chinese Guidelines in predicting malignant mucinous PCN were calculated.Results Of 196 patients,39 patients (19.9%) were confirmed as malignant tumors and 157 patients (80.1%) were confirmed as benign tumors by pathology.There were significant differences on age,symptoms (abdominal pain,jaundice or pancreatitis),tumor solid composition,pancreatic duct diameter,tumor site,tumor diameter >3 cm,and serum CA199 level between malignant and benign patients (all P <0.05).But there were no significant differences on gender distribution,tumor diameter,mural nodules and the proportion of mucinous cystic neoplasm (MCN)and intra-ductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN).165 patients (84.2%) met the Sendai Guidelines,153 patients (78.1%) met the Chinese guideline,and only 61 patients (31.1%) met the Fukuoka Guidelines.All 39 patients with malignant tumors met the indications in Sendai Guidelines and Chinese guidelines,and only 35 patients had the indication for surgery in the Fukuoka Guidelines.The accuracy,sensitivity,specificity,PPV and NPV of the Fukuoka Guidelines for predicting the malignancy were 84.7%,89.7%,83.4%,57.4% and 97.0%,compared to 35.7%,100%,19.8%,23.6% and 100% for the Sendai and 41.8%,100%,27.4%,25.5% and 100% for the Chinese guidelines,respectively.Conclusions The performance of the Chinese guideline is slightly better than the Sendai Guidelines,while both of them can lead to a larger number of patients undergoing unnecessary surgical resection.Though the rate of missed diagnosis could reach 10.3%,the Fukuoka Guidelines gets the highest accuracy.