制造业与生产性服务业耦合能否促进空间协调——基于285个城市数据的检验

Can the Coupling between Manufacturing and Productive Services Enhance Spatial Coordination ——A Test Based on Data from 285 Cities in China

产业空间协调发展兼有产业关联与空间关联的特征,空间集聚与空间转移具有实现产业协调与区域协调的二重协调作用。本文基于中国285个城市2003-2016年的数据,采用耦合协调度模型和空间面板杜宾模型验证制造业与生产性服务业协调发展所带来的空间协调发展问题。耦合协调度模型实证结果发现,年度制造业与生产性服务业处于良好协调发展区间,城市制造业与生产性服务业耦合协调度较低,67.37%的城市处于濒临失调衰退区间与勉强协调发展区间;空间面板杜宾模型实证结果发现,制造业与生产性服务业协调发展的正向溢出作用促进了区域协调发展,空间集聚与空间转移的作用机制具有非线性特征,对本地产业协调发展具有先弱化后增强的作用,但对相邻地区产业协调发展具有一定的虹吸效应。因此,建议增强产业与空间的系统性,强化产业空间集聚与空间转移的资源配置能力,发挥产业耦合协调作用促进空间协调发展。

The coordinated industrial spatial development is tinted with the characteristics of industrial and spatial associations.Industrial spatial agglomeration and transfer have the dual synergistic effects on industrial and regional coordination.Based on the data from 285 cities in China in the years of 2003 to 2016,both the coupling degree model and the spatial panel Dubin model are applied to test the issues on spatial coordinated development brought about by the coordinated development of manufacturing and services.The coupling degree model derives that the yearly manufacturing and productive services are within the interval of well-coordinated development,the coupling degree is low between urban manufacturing and productive services,and 67.37%of the cities are on the verge of recession or in the interval of barely coordinated development.The spatial panel Dubin model concludes that the positive spillover from the coordinated development of manufacturing and productive services promotes the regional coordinated development,the mechanism affecting spatial agglomeration and transfer is of nonlinear characteristics,which would have weak impact at first and strong one later on the coordinated development of local industries,but plays a certain siphon effect role in the coordinated development of industries in adjacent regions.Therefore,it is proposed to enhance the synergy of industries and spatial coordination,strengthen the capacity of resource allocation for industrial spatial agglomeration and transfer,and enable the industrial coupling and coordinating effects on escalating the coordinated spatial development.