中国实体经济资金效率与财务风险真实水平透析——金融服务实体经济效率和水平不高的症结何在?

A Study on the Real Level of Capital Efficiency and Financial Risks of China's Real Economy:What is the Crux of the Low Efficiency of Finance in Servicing Real Economy?

资金(资本)的本性是逐利避险。资金效率与财务风险信息不仅是资本市场引导资本配置和资本流动的基本依据,而且也是各级政府研判经济运行态势和制定宏观调控政策的重要依据。由于传统财务分析体系存在的资金(资本)与资产概念相混淆、营业性负债与金融性负债不加区分以及经济活动分类不当等理论缺陷,导致传统财务分析体系提供的资金效率与财务风险信息被严重扭曲,资金效率被严重低估,财务风险则被严重高估。对除金融类上市公司之外其他所有行业上市公司2008～2017年10年期间数据的分析显示,传统财务分析体系使资金效率被低估30%以上,而财务风险则被高估40%以上,让本来处于转型升级艰难时期的实体经济"雪上加霜"。严重的信息扭曲导致资本市场上实体经济被极度唱衰、投资价值被严重低估,从而误导趋利避险的金融资本远离"低回报"、"高风险"的实体经济。不仅如此,传统财务分析体系还使经营活动资金回报率被低估40%以上,而投资活动资金回报率却被高估50%以上,从而误导企业内部资本市场资金更多从经营活动(实体经营)流向投资活动(资本经营)。这为我国近年来出现的"金融脱实向虚"、"实体企业融资难、融资贵"以及"实体企业金融化"等金融服务实体经济效率和水平不高问题的原因提供了一个新的解释,也为政府客观评估经济新常态下中国实体经济发展状况提供了重要参考依据。

The nature of capital is to hedge against risk.Fund efficiency and financial risk information are not only the basis for capital market to guide capital allocation and capital flow,but also an important basis for governments at all levels to judge the economic operation situation and formulate macro-control policies.Due to the confusion between the concept of capital and assets in the traditional financial analysis system,the lack of differentiation between business liabilities and financial liabilities,and the improper classification of economic activities,the financial efficiency and financial risk information provided by the traditional financial analysis system are seriously distorted,capital efficiency was seriously underestimated,and financial risks were seriously overestimated.Analysis of the data for the listed companies in all industries except financial listed companies for the period of 2008~2017 shows that the traditional financial analysis system makes the capital efficiency underestimated by more than 30%,while the financial risk is overestimated by more than 40%.The real economy,which was originally in a difficult period of transformation and upgrading,has become worse.Serious information distortions have caused the real economy in the capital market to be extremelybadly squandered,and the value of investment has been seriously underestimated,thus misleading the profit-seeking financial capital away from the"low-return"and"high-risk"real economy.Moreover,the traditional financial analysis system also makes the return on capital of operating activities underestimated by more than 40%,while the return on capital of investment activities is overestimated by more than 50%,thus misleading companies’internal capital market funds flow more from business activities(entity operations)to investment activities(capital operations).This provides a new explanation for the reasons for the problems of low economic efficiency and level of financial services entities such as"financial de-realization","financial enterprise financing difficulties"and"entity enterprise financialization"that have emerged in recent years.It also provides an important reference for the government to objectively assess the development of China’s real economy under the new economic normal.