俄罗斯精英共识与地区经济发展——鞑靼斯坦共和国的经验

Russian Elite Consensus and Regional Economic Development: Experience of the Republic of Tatarstan

国际经验表明,地区发展可以成为大国经济增长的助推器。在俄罗斯经济发展模式需要转型的背景下,俄罗斯高等经济大学的研究团队对鞑靼斯坦共和国的发展管理模式进行了分析。从21世纪第一个十年中期起,鞑靼斯坦共和国的发展管理模式,在俄罗斯就被视为实践典范。当前在鞑靼斯坦共和国已经形成了独特的投资环境,与俄罗斯其他地区相比,其突出特点在于,地方政府的政策可预见度高,且能够为地区重点项目的投资者提供切实保障,地区商业支出与投资风险低。鞑靼斯坦共和国主要精英群体在利益方面相互协调,在地区发展重点与实现路径上具备共识,这在过去是而且也将持续是鞑靼斯坦共和国发展的重要优势。鞑靼斯坦共和国能否建立起在亚洲国家成功运作的追赶型发展模式,这将取决于当地精英能否找到应对近期地区新挑战的共识性对策,同时也取决于俄罗斯联邦层面的地区政策架构。封闭性的固定资产所有制结构,以及劳动报酬水平落后,是鞑靼斯坦共和国面临的主要发展障碍。

In the context of Russia’s need to make a transition towards a new developmental model and in light of the international experience suggesting that advanced regions within large economies could become the primary drivers of national growth,this article analyzes the developmental model that has been shaping up in the Republic of Tatarstan(the RT).In Russia,since the mid-2000s,this model has been considered as an example of best practice.This article identifies the main characteristics and stages in the evolution of the RT developmental model,as well as highlights its strengths and limitations using the SWOT-analysis techniques.It is noted that a"special"investment climate has formed in the region,featuring predictable government policies,lower costs and risks of doing business,and informal guarantees for entrepreneurs willing to invest in the RT’s priority projects.According to this article,the consolidation of interests of major regional elite groups,their consensus regarding the priorities for regional development and associated policy instruments have been important comparative advantages of Tatarstan.The prospects for formation in the RT of a catching-up developmental model similar to ones in the successful countries of Southeast Asia will depend upon the extent to which current Tatarstan’s elites could find a consolidated response to the new challenges confronting the RT recently,as well as the degree of soundness of the federal policy with respect to the more developed regions.The main obstacles to development include the current closed ownership structure of core assets,limiting possibilities of market entry for new players,and lower average wages prejudging the outflow of skilled personnel from the RT.