贸易摩擦对中美两国的影响:基于动态GTAP模型的分析

The Impact of Trade Friction between China and the U.S. :An Analysis Based on Dynamic GTAP Model

中国是美国的第一大贸易伙伴,美国是中国的第二大贸易伙伴。因此,中美贸易摩擦将对中美两国经济和贸易产生重要的影响。文章应用动态GTAP模型分析了中美贸易摩擦对中美两国宏观经济和各部门的影响。研究发现,同基准情景相比,从各部门产出看,在短期内,中国农产品和轻工业会受到正面影响,其余部门会受到负面冲击;美国肉类、采掘、食品、纺织、重工业、通信和服务部门会得到促进,其余部门会受到抑制。长期来看,除农产品部门外,中国其余部门会受到正面冲击;除通信部门外,美国各部门产出的变化与其短期相似。总体而言,不论在短期还是长期,中国经济增速、出口和进口的下降幅度均高于美国,这表明贸易摩擦对中国的负面冲击更大。

China is the largest trade partner of the U. S. and the U. S. is China’s second largest trade partner. Therefore, the trade friction between China and the U. S. will have an important impact on their economy and trade. Based on dynamic GTAP model, this paper analyses the macroeconomic and sectoral impact of trade friction on China and the U. S.The results indicate that compared with the baseline scenario, in the short run, China’s agricultural products and light industry will be positively affected while the rest will be negatively impacted. The sectors of meat, mining, food, heavy industry, telecommunication and service will be promoted while the rest will be suppressed. In the long run, China’s sectors, except agricultural products sector, will suffer a positive shock. The changes in output in all sectors of the U. S. except telecommunication sector are similar to those changes in the short term. Overall, the decline in economic growth rate, export and import of China is higher than that of the U. S. in both long and short term. It shows that trade friction exerts a greater negative impact on China.