双边贸易对中国企业OFDI的影响和机制分析——基于中国上市公司微观数据研究

Analysis of the Influence and Mechanism of Bilateral Trade on China's Enterprises' OFDI: Based on Micro Data of the Listed Companies in China

文章采用2005～2015年中国上市公司的对外直接投资额,并匹配中国和东道国的双边贸易数据,通过面板固定效应模型和面板门槛效应模型,实证检验了双边出口贸易、进口贸易对中国企业对外直接投资的影响和机制。实证结果表明:双边贸易与中国企业对外直接投资呈现正相关,出口贸易的促进作用更大;当中国企业"走出去"的主体为私营企业、行业为制造业,投资东道国为发展中国家时,双边贸易的增长更能促进中国企业对外直接投资的发展。双边贸易与中国企业对外直接投资存在阶段性发展特征,当东道国GDP达到第一重门槛值(26. 26和26. 16)后,双边贸易的增长加深了中国企业对东道国市场的了解,从而有效促进了中国企业对外直接投资的发展;当东道国GDP超过第二重门槛值(27. 52和26. 64)后,其市场规模和容量已经接近饱和,竞争程度高且伴随着较高的贸易壁垒,进出口贸易与中国企业对外直接投资的关系由互补转为替代。

Based on the OFDI amount of the listed companies in China from 2005 to 2015,this paper empirically examines the influence and mechanism of bilateral export and import trade on OFDI of China’s enterprises by matching the bilateral trade data of China and the host countries with the panel fixed effect model and panel threshold effect model. The empirical results show that bilateral trade is positively related to OFDI of China’s enterprises, and the effect of export on OFDI is more significant. When the company is a private enterprise or a manufacturer and the host country is a developed country, the growth of bilateral trade can better promote the development of China’s enterprises’ OFDI. There is a phased characteristic in the relationship between bilateral trade and China’s enterprises’ OFDI. When the host country’s GDP reaches the first threshold( 26. 26 and 26. 16), the growth of bilateral trade deepens China’s enterprises’ understanding of the host country’s market and thus effectively promotes the development of China’s enterprises’ OFDI. After the host country’s GDP reaches the second threshold( 27. 52 and 26. 64), its market size and capacity are close to saturation with high intensity of competition and high trade barriers. The relationship between import and export trade and China’s enterprises’ OFDI changes from complementation to substitution.