金融去杠杆、竞争中性与政策转型——2019年中国宏观经济展望

Financial Deleveraging, Competitive Neutrality and Policy Transformation: China's Macroeconomic Outlook in 2019

本轮经济增速放缓需要从两个视角分析,一个是短期视角,另一个是长期视角。短期看,经济增速放缓的主因是金融去杠杆,主渠道是房地产开发和基建投资下降,民营经济也遭受较大冲击。逆周期宏观调控是应对经济波动的正常操作,也是对货币政策和宏观审慎政策正交性的检验和协调配合的探索,不能简单解读为"放水"或政策转向。扶持民营经济的相关政策可以看作在竞争中性原则确立之前的权宜之计,也有稳定预期的作用。长期看,我国宏观调控的主要矛盾,已经从就业和通胀的折衷,转变为经济稳定和金融稳定的折衷。金融去杠杆背后并非表外业务回表和传统体制回归,而是整个货币政策和金融监管的转型。这一转型的成败,直接关系到我国建设现代化经济体系的成败,也直接关系到我国能否打破金融诅咒,续写增长奇迹。

China's current economic slowdown needs to be analyzed from both the short-term and long-term perspectives.In the short term,the main cause of the economic slowdown is financial deleveraging,with the decline of real estate and infrastructure investment as the main channel.In addition,the private economy also suffered a lot.Counter-cyclical macro-control policies are normal operations in response to economic fluctuations and also a test of the orthogonality and coordination between monetary and macroprudential policies,which cannot be simply interpreted as"releasing water"or policy reversal.Policies supporting the private sector can be seen as a stopgap measure before the establishment of the competitive neutrality principle and can also stabilize expectations.In the long term,the principal contradiction in China's macro-control has shifted from the tradeoff between employment and inflation to the tradeoff between economic stability and financial stability.Financial deleveraging is not the off-balance-sheet items going back on balance sheets and the return of traditional institutions,but the transformation of the whole monetary policy and financial regulation.This transformation is not only directly related to the construction of China's modern economic system,but also directly related to whether China can break the financial curse and continue the growth miracle.