资源型城市转型政策实施效果评价——基于PSM-DID方法

Evaluation on the Implementation Effect of Resource-Based Cities' Transformation Policy:Based on a PSM-DID Method

资源型城市的转型与发展,已经引起了各界的重视,我国在2013年底颁布了《全国资源型城市可持续发展规划(2013-2020年)》。客观评价这一政策产生的影响,不仅对于政策本身的实施和完善具有重要意义,而且能够对其他资源规划战略产生借鉴作用。本文首次使用2006-2015年中国233个地级市的面板数据,利用PSM-DID来评估《规划》对资源型城市经济增长产生的影响。研究发现,《规划》并未有效推动资源型城市地区生产总值的快速增长,甚至存在负面作用。通过分类比较,《规划》对衰退型、成熟型、再生型资源型城市均存在负面影响。最后,通过机制检验发现,《规划》在实施过程中存在着"政策陷阱",未来《规划》的完善重点在于加强软环境建设,建立奖惩结合的引导机制,给予资源型城市更多引导以帮助其调整产业结构,主动降低经济增长对资源开发的依赖度,重视人力资本积累,为资源型城市经济增长创造新的驱动力。

The transformation and development of resource-based cities has attracted the attentions from all circles. At the end of 2013, China promulgated the National Sustainable Development Planning for Resource-Based Cities (2013-2020). Objectively evaluating the impact of this policy is not only important for the implementation and improvement of the policy itself, but also can be used as a reference for other resource planning strategies. By using the panel data of 233 prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2015, this study found that the policy did not effectively promote the economic growth in resource-based cities, and even had a negative impact on declining, mature and regenerative resource-based cities. Through the mechanism test, it is found that there existed "policy trap" in the implementation. Further, the key point of perfecting the policy could be concluded as strengthening the construction of the soft environment, establishing a guiding mechanism combining with rewards and punishments, giving more policy support to help resource-based cities adjust the industrial structure and reduce the resource dependence, and accumulating human capital to create new driving forces for the economic development of resource-based cities.