“人口红利”与“储蓄之谜”——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

“Demographic Dividend”and “Chinese Saving Puzzle”: Base on the Empirical Analysis of the Provincial Panel Date

"两次人口红利"与"储蓄之谜"间拥有怎样的内在联系?二者为何在我国几乎同时出现并面临同步消减?运用引入代际转移系数的三期迭代模型进行了数理分析,并通过实证模型进行了检验。结果表明:预期寿命的延长会促进储蓄率的增加;少儿抚养比对我国居民储蓄具有负向影响,并且收入越高,少儿抚养比对储蓄率的负效应越弱;而老年抚养比则具有正向影响,收入的增加则会促进老年抚养比对储蓄率的正效应,所得的结论十分稳健。该现象也反映了我国居民收入差距过大的经济事实。将"两次人口红利"与"储蓄之谜"间的理论逻辑进行了分析并给与了实证检验,结论具有一定的启示意义。

What is the internalrelationship between "Demographic Dividend "and "High Sa-vings"? Why are they almost happen and disappear at the same time in our country? We introduce the two-way factors inter-generationally to the 3 periods OLG Model and do the theoretical analysis.We inspect this phenomenon with the positivismmodel.The study finds that the extending of the expected life can increases the household saving rate.The child dependency ratio has negative effect on saving rate.The higher income they have,the more negative child dependency ratio on saving rate.But the old dependency ratio has positive effect.The higher revenues they have,the more positive effect old-age dependency ratio on saving rate.The results are robust.This phenomenon also reflects the national income gap is too wide.We reorganize the logical relationship between the "Demographic Dividend "and "High Savings".The result gives have enlightenment means.