农民生态移民意愿及其决定因素——来自甘肃省沙漠边缘农户调查的微观证据

Farmers’Willingness to Emigrate and Its Determinants ——Micro-evidence from the Investigation of Farmers in the Desert Border of Gansu Province

基于沙漠边缘第一手农户调查数据,选取核密度曲线和风险函数模型刻画农民生态移民意愿在年龄和家庭人均收入的分布特征,运用Logit模型从环境风险、生计禀赋、个体特征角度考察农民生态移民意愿的影响因素。农民生态移民意愿与年龄的分布呈倒"U"型,与家庭人均收入的分布呈先下降后上升趋势,形成1.75万元的转折"拐点"。环境风险中沙漠移动距离、极端灾害天气次数、荒漠植被破坏程度、地下水下降速度对农民生态移民意愿存在正向推动作用。生计禀赋中家庭人均收入、耕地、政府补贴越好,农民生态移民意愿越低,家庭劳动力数量与农民生态移民意愿呈正相关。个体特征中受教育程度与农民生态移民意愿正相关;家庭负担、贫困户特征、宗族关系也会影响农户生态移民意愿。由于农民的生计方式和年龄不同,农民生态移民意愿受影响的因素存在差异。

Based on first hand household survey data on the edge of the desert,the distribution characteristics of farmers’ ecological migration in age and family income are made by using the nuclear density curve and the risk function model,and The Logit model was used to investigate the factors influencing farmers’ ecological migration intention from the perspective of environmental risk,livelihood endowment and individual characteristics.The research shows that:The trend of farmers’ willingness to ecological migration shows a reversed U-type in the age distribution;farmers’ willingness to ecological migration decline first and then increase with the growth of family per capita income,forming a turning point of 17.5 thousand Yuan.The distance of desert moving,the times of extreme disaster weather,the extent of desert vegetation destruction,the speed of groundwater decline,all of these have a significant positive correlation with the farmers’ willingness to ecological migration.The better the per capita income,farmland and government subsidies in the livelihood endowment,the lower the farmers’ willingness to ecological migration,and the number of family labor force is positively correlated with the farmers’ willingness to ecological migration.The degree of education in individual characteristics was positively correlated with the willingness of ecological migration of farmers.The family burden,the characteristics of poor households and the clan relations also affect the willingness of ecological migration of farmers.Due to the differences in the way of livelihood and age,there are differences in the factors affecting the willingness of ecological migration of farmers.