基于账户参考利率的FISIM对GDP与收入分配的影响研究

A Study on Impact of FISIM on GDP and Income Distribution Based on Account Reference Interest Rates

本文从使用者成本的角度解析参考利率,并根据2008年SNA构建用于我国FISIM核算的账户参考利率,利用实际数据核算并分摊现价FISIM总产出;借鉴联合国国民经济核算工作组关于FISIM价格指数的思想,结合我国存贷款特点,构建存贷款服务价格指数,并缩减现价FISIM;最后,分析现价FISIM对GDP与收入分配的影响,并探究不变价FISIM对实际GDP的影响。研究结果表明,住户部门分摊的FISIM与净出口分摊的FISIM会增加GDP。各机构部门的初次分配总收入和可支配总收入也因增加值、财产收入及经常转移等的变化而相应变化。不变价FISIM对经济增长波动率的影响大于其对经济增长率的影响。

This paper analyzes the reference rates from the perspective of user cost, constructs the account reference rates for China’s FISIM based on the SNA 2008, and calculates and apportions the current FISIM total output using the actual data. Drawing on the ideas of the United Nations Working Group on National Accounts on the FISIM price index, and in view of the characteristics of China’s deposits and loans, it builds up the price index of deposit and loan services, and deflates the FISIM at current prices. Finally, it studies the impact of FISIM at current prices on GDP and income distribution and explores the impact of FISIM at constant prices on GDP in real term. Based on the accounts and analysis, it is found that the share of FISIM from the household sector and the net export share of FISIM upswing the GDP, and the impact is greater on GDP than on gross national income. The initial distribution of gross and total disposable income in various institutional sectors also varies as the value added, property income and current transfers change. The impact of FISIM at constant prices is greater on the volatility rate of the real GDP growth than on the real GDP growth rate.