价格规制对天然气需求弹性的影响——以山东地区为例

Impact of Price Regulation on Elasticity of Natural Gas Demand——A Case Study of Shandong Province

理顺天然气价格、需求和价格规制之间的关系对推进山东省新旧能源转换至关重要。以该省2002～2016年天然气消费数据为样本,采用对数线性需求函数模型与价差法,分别估算引入价格规制变量与不引入价格规制变量时的需求弹性模型。为进一步研究不同行业天然气需求价格弹性与GDP弹性的差异,选取居民、工业、交通运输业与服务业为研究对象,分别估算其需求弹性模型,并结合不同行业的特点对比分析了其需求价格弹性与GDP弹性存在差异的原因。研究发现:考虑价格规制时,山东省总体需求价格弹性为正,呈刚性需求;不考虑价格规制时,需求弹性为负且绝对值大于1,富有弹性;山东省不同行业天然气需求价格弹性和GDP弹性存在较大差异;价格规制降低了天然气需求价格弹性,抑制了GDP弹性,但对不同用户的天然气需求价格弹性与GDP弹性影响程度不同。基于此,提出借鉴美国天然气市场开放经验加快市场化进程、建立天然气动态调整新机制、搭建价格改革新平台等建议。

Straightening out the relationship among the price,demand and price regulation of natural gas is essential for promoting the transition from old energy to new energy in Shandong Province.Taking the natural gas consumption data of Shandong Province from 2002 to 2016 as the sample,this paper uses the log-linear demand function model and the price-gap approach to respectively estimate the demand elasticity model of Shandong Province with and without the introduction of price regulation variable.In order to further study the difference between the price elasticity and GDP elasticity of natural gas demand in different industries,this paper selects four industries including resident,industry,transportation and service as the research object to respectively estimate their demand elasticity models,and compares and analyzes the reasons for the difference between the price elasticity of demand and the GDP elasticity according to the characteristics of different industries.The results show that when the price regulation is considered,the overall price elasticity of demand of Shandong Province is positive and shows rigid demand,and when the price regulation is not considered,the price elasticity of demand is negative and its absolute value is greater than 1.There are great differences between the price elasticity and GDP elasticity of natural gas demand in different industries in Shandong Province.The price regulation reduces the price elasticity of natural gas demand and inhibits the GDP elasticity,but its influence on the price elasticity and GDP elasticity of natural gas demand varies for different users.Based on this,this paper puts forward some suggestions such as drawing on foreign experience to expedite the market-oriented reform of natural gas,establishing a new mechanism for dynamic adjustment of natural gas and building a new platform for price reform.