产能过剩倒逼我国产业结构升级了吗?

Has Overcapacity Forced China to Upgrade Its Industrial Structure?

基于对时下热点问题"产能过剩倒逼我国产业结构升级"的思考,文章构建了一个产能过剩倒逼产业结构升级的理论分析框架。文章认为,由于中国目前仍无法有效满足倒逼机制的充分条件,产能过剩对我国产业结构升级的倒逼机制被延缓与削弱。实证结果发现:(1)倒逼机制依然存在,但只有在产能过剩超过某一临界值之后,倒逼机制的充分条件才开始被满足。这一结论解释了为何我国产能过剩存续时间长且问题严重。(2)文章分所有制观察了三种经济类型产能过剩对产业结构升级的倒逼作用。结果表明与非国有经济不同,国有经济的产能过剩并不能有效倒逼产业结构升级,即存在倒逼机制的"二元结构",延缓了我国产业结构升级的步伐。

Based on the consideration of the current hot issue " overcapacity forces China to upgrade its industrial structure", this paper constructs a theoretical analytical framework under ideal conditions or in the context of Europe and the United States. As China is still unable to effectively meet the full conditions of the force mechanism, the mechanism of overcapacity on China's industrial structural upgrading has been postponed and weakened. The empirical results show that:( 1 ) the overcapacity mechanism still exists, but only after the overcapacity exceeds a certain critical value, the full conditions of the force mechanism begin to be met. At this time, overcapacity has forced China's industrial structure to upgrade, and the problem of overcapacity has begun to ease. This conclusion explains why China's overcapacity has a long and serious problem.(2) An observance of the force mechanism of overcapacity of three economic types on industrial structural upgrading under the ownership system shows that, unlike the private sector, overcapacity of the state sector cannot effectively force industrial stmctural upgrading, that is, there are "dual structures" of the force mechanism , which slows industrial structural upgrading in China.