延迟退休能改善老年人福利?——基于代际支持视角

Does Postponing Retirement Improve the Welfare of the Elderly?: An Analysis from the Perspectives of Intergenerational Support

文章从代际支持视角出发,建立一个可以模拟不同延迟退休情景下历年老年人福利变化的动态优化模型,根据现实可行参数进行模拟,研究发现:在当前待遇确定型养老保险制度下实施延迟退休方案,短期内不仅难以改善老年人福利,反而可能会损害老年人现有福利。文章认为,若要促使延迟退休方案实现帕累托改进,主要有两个思路:其一,将养老保险制度由待遇确定型调整为缴费确定型,从而促使延迟退休政策在提高社会整体福利水平的同时,也能有效改善老年人福利;其二,在不改变现有养老保险制度的前提下,延迟退休方案的实施应与养老金替代率的提高并举,即引入转移支付机制,把延迟退休改善的社会福利部分补偿给老年人。

From the perspectives of intergenerational support, a dynamic optimization model that simulates the impact of different retirement scenarios on the welfare of the elderly is established. Based on the realistic parameters, we found that in the period of postponing retirement, not only postponing the retirement plan does not boost the welfare of the elderly under the Defined-Benefit system, but also may harm the welfare of the elderly. How can the postponing retirement plan achieve social Pareto's improvement? There are two main ways. One is that the Defined-Benefit system should be adjusted to become the Defined Contribution system, so that postponing the retirement plan can effectively improve the welfare of the elderly while improving the overall level of social welfare. The other is that under the Defined - Benefit system, the government should increase the pension replacement rate while delaying retirement, that is, transfer the benefit of social welfare to the elderly.