海南省自由贸易区建设背景下的执业医师配置预测

Prediction of Licensed Physicians Allocation Under Background of Hainan Province Free Trade Zone Construction

目的:分析海南省执业(助理)医师资源配置现状和趋势预测,为做好卫生人力资源发展规划提供理论依据。方法:运用R语言3.4.4版本中的一次指数平滑法对海南省2017-2021年的执业(助理)医师数进行测。结果:海南省每千人执业(助理)医师配置数低于全国平均水平,年增长率呈下降趋势;各地区医师配置分布不均衡,经济社会发展好的一类地区配置高,反之则较低。结论:提高医师配置比例,建立吸引和培养人才的长效机制,培养涉外医疗卫生人才,多渠道提升基层医师服务能力。

Objective: To analyzed the current situation of resource allocation of licensed (assistant) physicians and make trend prediction in Hainan Province in order to provide theoretical basis for the development planning of health human resources. Methods: The number of practicing (assistant) physicians in Hainan Province from 2017 to 2021 was predicted using the primary exponential smoothing method in version 3.4.4 of R language. Results: The number of medical practitioners (assistant) in Hainan Province is lower than the national average.The annual growth rate shows a downward trend. The distribution of physicians is uneven in each region. A region with good economic and social development is highly allocated, while the reverse is relatively lower. Conclusion: We should increase the proportion of physicians allocated,establish a long-term mechanism to attract and cultivate talents, and cultivate foreign-related medical and health personnel, and improve the service ability of primary doctors through multiple channels.