传统节会的声誉溢出效应:基于Kreps-Milgrom-Roberts-Wilson声誉模型

Reputation Spillover Effect of Traditional Festivals:Based on the Reputation Model of Kreps-Milgrom-Roberts-Wilson

中国经济繁荣带来传统节会复苏,但是传统节会市场的鱼龙混杂导致传统节会声誉参差不齐,该现象引起了政府部门的重视和学术界的关注.现有文献侧重于对节会概念、意义、文化层面的讨论,缺乏对节会声誉问题的研究,因此本文参考Kreps-Milgrom-Roberts-Wilson声誉模型,在四个基本假设基础上建立了传统节会的声誉模型,分析了传统节会的声誉溢出效应及均衡条件.研究发现:第一,参与者认为传统节会承办方的声誉越好,承办方选择不欺骗参与者的概率就越大,承办方建立声誉的积极性也就越高;第二,一旦承办方出现欺骗参与者的行为,参与者就会认为其是弱承办方,在下一期承办方会失去参与者的信任,从而失去长期获利的机会;第三,无论是强承办方还是弱承办方,不去欺骗参与者才是最优选择,此时承办方和参与者可以实现合作共赢,这是一种更有效率的文化旅游发展模式.因此,文章提出了建立传统节会声誉评价制度与信息公开制度、加强对传统节会的监管以及完善相关法律法规的政策建议.

Economic prosperity in China brings about revival of traditional festivals, but mess in the traditional festival markets make reputations of traditional festivals uneven, which draws common attention of government sectors and academia. Current literatures focus on the discussion about conception, value, and culture of some kind of traditional festival, but lack in the researches on the problem of festival reputation. This paper consults the reputation model of Kreps-Milgrom-Roberts-Wilson, constructs a reputation model of traditional festivals based on four basic assumptions, and analyzes reputation spillover effect of traditional festivals and its equilibrium conditions. It is shown that, at first, the better the reputation of the hosts, the more probability that the hosts choose not to cheat participants, and then the more enthusiasm that the hosts go after;secondly, the participants will recognize them as weak hosts once the hosts cheat the participants, and the hosts will lost the trusts of the participants in the next festival and their accompanying chances to make profits;thirdly, choosing not to cheat participants is a best choice for strong and weak hosts, when the hosts and the participants will achieve a collaborative win-win, which is a more effective developing mode of cultural tourism. Therefore, this paper puts forward those suggestions of setting up systems of reputation assessment and opening information of traditional festivals, strengthening supervision on traditional festivals and improving the concerned laws and regulations.