制度距离对中国对外直接投资区位分布的影响研究——基于“一带一路”沿线47国数据的实证分析

Research on the Impact of Institutional Distance on the Location Distribution of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment——Empirical Analysis Based on Data from 47 Countries Along the “Belt and Road”

以"一带一路"沿线47个国家为样本,分析了制度距离对中国直接投资区位分布的影响。结果表明:中国同"一带一路"沿线国家的经济制度距离对中国直接投资几乎无影响,而法制制度距离则有显著的负向作用。在采用Ward系统聚类分析法将经济制度距离差异分为大、小两组后,上述结论依然成立。中国对外直接投资既存在明显的惯性特征即前期投资会显著影响当期投资,又遵循着出口导向型投资,而且还倾向于投资那些汇率估值较低、基础设施更完善、劳动产出更高的国家或地区。

This paper analyses the influence of institutional distance on the regional distribution of China’s direct investment with 47 countries along the "Belt and Road" as a sample. The results show that the economic institutional distance has little effect on China’s direct investment, while the legal institutional distance has a significant negative effect. Even after adopting the Ward system cluster analysis method to divide the economic system distance into two groups with high and low economic institutional differences, the above conclusion is still valid. In addition, China’s outward foreign direct investment has obvious inertial features. That is, the early investment will significantly affect the current investment, and follows the path of an export-oriented investment. Moreover, it tends to go to those countries or regions with lower exchange rate valuation, better infrastructure, and higher labor output.