产业协同集聚对全要素生产率影响的门槛效应研究——基于中国246个城市的实证检验

Research on Threshold Effect of Industrial Co-agglomeration’s Impact on Total Factor Productivity——Based on the Empirical Test of 246 Cities in China

在借助一般门槛模型估计门槛值的基础上,利用门槛值生成虚拟变量来构建分段函数以求解模型参数,并进一步利用中国246个地级及以上城市2003—2016年的面板数据进行实证检验,结果发现:当制造业专业化集聚度分别跨越门槛值1.0299、2.1741、2.0651后,生产性服务业与制造业协同集聚对全要素生产率、纯效率改善和生产规模变化的影响均由负转正,而跨过门槛值2.1741后对纯技术进步的正向影响却由正转负;当以生产性服务业专业化集聚度为门槛变量时,生产性服务业与制造业协同集聚对全要素生产率及其分解指标的门槛效应不显著或不存在。

Based on the estimation of the threshold value with reference to the general threshold model, this paper constructs piecewise function to solve model parameters by using virtual variable generated from the threshold value. Then the paper carries out an empirical test using the panel data of 246 cities of prefecture-level and above in China during 2003-2016. It is found that the effect of industrial co-agglomeration with producer services on TFP(total factor productivity), PEC(pure efficiency change) and production scale change turns from negative to positive after the threshold value of 1.0299, 2.1741 and 2.0651 are passed respectively in the specialized agglomeration index of manufacturing, while this effect on pure technological progress turns from positive to negative after reaching the threshold value of 2.1741. With the specialized agglomeration of producer services being the threshold variable, the threshold effect of industrial co-agglomeration on TFP and its decomposition indicators is not significant, or even null.