网络衍生舆情的传播模型及分析方法研究

Propagation Model and Analysis Method of Network-derived Public Opinion

大数据时代发布信息渠道更加多元,社会热点舆情极易受到各种因素影响发生异化,产生网络衍生舆情的链式反应不可避免。文章依据网络衍生舆情传播的不同特性,将网络衍生舆情分为单向直线式、复合裂变式、焦点汇聚式、多向放射式和综合叠加式5种类型,进而对不同的网络衍生舆情模型提出相应的概率计算方法,并对网络衍生舆情的分析流程进行了具体的描述。通过不同视角的分析方法研究和实证研究,能够以定量计算更加科学地支持网络舆情信息的预测研判和智能决策。

In the era of big data,the information distribution channels are more diversified,and public opinions on social hotspots are easily dissimilated by various factors,so the chain reaction of generating network-derived public opinion is inevitable.According to the different characteristics of network-derived public opinion transmission,the network-derived public opinion is divided into five types:unidirectional linear,compound fission,focus converging,multidirectional radiating and integrated superposition,and then the corresponding probability calculation method is put forward for different network-derived public opinion models,and the analysis process of network-derived public opinion is described in detail.From the analysis methods and empirical studies from different perspectives,the paper can provide scientific support for the forecast and intelligent decision-making of network public opinion through quantitative analysis.