西班牙“组合模式”人口普查:经验及启示

Interpretation of the Spain “Population Census Combined Use of Sample Survey and Register-based Survey” and Its Enlightenment to China

针对传统人口普查面临的数据获取成本高、数据获取质量低、普查对象负担重等现状,明确提出由综合运用行政记录大数据资源和专门组织的调查数据资源的"组合模式"人口普查替代传统人口普查的设想。为此,以西班牙2011年人口普查为例,解析"组合模式"人口普查的实施框架和实施步骤,归纳了"基于普查前文件形成人口统计信息的初估计""基于建筑物普查实现地理信息的更新""围绕抽样调查完成详细特征信息的获取"以及"引入计数因子进行确定人口数的估计"四条成功经验。为进一步推动我国人口普查向"组合模式"人口普查迈进提出了若干建议。

Traditional census is facing problems of the high cost of data acquisition,the low quality of data acquisition,the heavy burden of the census object and so on.In view of this phenomenon,this article explicitly put forward the idea of substituting "Population Census Combined Use of Sample Survey and Register-based Survey" for traditional census,which combines the administrative register data resources and the sampling survey data resources of specialized organization.Accordingly,take Spain's 2011 census as an example,we parsing the framework and implementation steps of the "Census Combined Use of Sample Surveys and Register Data".And we summarize four successful experience,which is "estimating the demographic information based on Pre-census File","updating the geographic information based on the buildings census","obtaining the detailed information based on the sampling survey" and "estimating the number of population based on the count factor".Further,this paper puts forward some suggestions to promote the traditional census to "Census Combined Use of Sample Survey and Register-based data".