全面二孩政策对中国劳动力供求关系的影响

The Impact of Two-child Policy on the Labor Supply and the Labor Demand in China

构建劳动力供求关系模型并对相关参数校对与说明,研究了2018—2050年全面二孩政策对中国劳动力供求关系的影响。结果表明:在假定的高速、中速和低速GDP增长条件下,全面二孩政策都能够显著改善中国劳动力供求关系。以生育政策不变时为基准,当二孩生育比例处于10%～30%较低水平时,相对于生育政策不变时缓解劳动力供求关系的效果约1.055～1.188倍;当二孩生育比例处于50%～70%中度水平时,缓解劳动力供求关系的效果约1.344～1.584倍;当二孩生育比例处于90%～100%高水平时,缓解劳动力供求关系的效果约1.856～2.112倍。无论在高速、中速和低速GDP增长假定下,各二孩生育比例指标设计下对应的劳动力供求关系整体上均呈现下降的趋势,各指标在2022年出现劳动力短缺后,至2050年整体上呈现劳动力短缺加重的趋势。这表明,在2018—2050年仅仅依靠全面二孩政策无法扭转中国劳动力短缺加重的局面。在保障二孩生育比例的同时,如何寻求全面二孩政策之外的方法来扭转中国劳动力短缺加重的局面,应成为后续的研究重点。

Through the construction of labor supply and demand model and the related parameters proofreading and description,the paper studies the influence of two-child policy on the labor supply and demand in China,2018-2050.The result shows that under the high-speed,medium-speed and low-speed GDP growth,the two-child policy all can improve the relationship between supply and demand of labor significantly.Based on the fertility policy is not changed,the effect of relieving labor supply and demand is about 1.055~1.188 times when the birth rate of two-child is from 10% to 30%,1.344~1.584 times from 50% to 70% and 1.856~2.112 times from 90% to 100%.However,under the assumption of high speed,medium speed and low speed GDP growth,the trends of the labor supply and demand all showed a declining situation through the design of two-child birth.The shortage of the labor emerges in 2022 and becomes severer after 2022.This shows that only the two-child policy can not reverse the situation of China's labor shortage in 2018-2050.How to find other ways to reverse the situation of China's labor shortage should be the focus of further research.