产业升级、增长联盟与住房供给弹性——基于35个大中城市的数据分析

Research on Industrial Upgrading,Growth Coalition and Elasticity of Housing Supply: Data Analysis Based on 35 Large and Medium Cities

产业升级对地方政府与房地产业所形成的增长联盟形成冲击,因此产业变迁对于房地产业的影响已成为理论研究的重点。通过构建住房供给弹性与产业升级、财政收入、政府干预变量的计量模型,运用2009—2015年中国35个大中城市数据,实证分析并检验得出结论:产业升级与财政收入增长会提升住房供给弹性,降低供给调整粘滞效应;而在产业高级化程度与财政收入较低的区域,住房供给调整粘滞效应较大,住房调控政策往往会处于失灵状态。因此,房地产调控长效机制的形成应该建立在产业升级与财政增长的前提之下,并在此基础上提出构建以产业新城为核心的产业地产机制、形成以创新为核心的产业集群效应等政策建议。

Industrial upgrading has produced an impact on the growth coalition formed by local governments and the real estate industry.Therefore,the impact of industrial changes on the real estate industry has become a focus in theoretical research.This paper took the supply elasticity as a index for research on housing market,built a measurement model of the housing supply elasticity and industrial upgrading,fiscal revenue,and government intervention variables,and used the 2009-2015 data of 35 large and medium-sized cities in China,to make empirical analyses and tests and draw the following conclusions.Industrial upgrading and the fiscal revenue increase can increase the housing supply elasticity and weaken the viscosity effect of supply adjustment;in places with a higher industrialization level and lower fiscal revenues,the housing supply adjustment produces a greater viscosity effect,and housing regulation policies are usually ineffective.Therefore,the establishment of a long-term real estate regulation mechanism should be achieved under the premise of industrial upgrading and fiscal revenue increases.In addition,policy suggestions,such as building a new industry city-centered real estate mechanism and producing innovation-oriented industrial clustering effects,were given in this paper.