中俄共建冰上丝绸之路的决策变迁考量

Jointly Building the “Polar Silk Road”:An Analysis on the Causes of China's Decision-Making Changes

俄罗斯是中国在与北冰洋沿岸国家共建"冰上丝绸之路"进程中的首要合作伙伴。近年中俄在该领域的合作取得重要进展。东北航道对中俄都具有重大价值,双方在此领域拥有互补优势。不过,2015年中国发布的"一带一路"重要文件《推动共建丝绸之路经济带和21世纪海上丝绸之路的愿景与行动》并没有提及该航道,而两年后发布的《"一带一路"建设海上合作设想》已将其与另两条海上通道相提并论,使之成为共建"一带一路"的重要方向。东北航道在"一带一路"倡议中地位变化的原因,不仅在于该航道现实能力的提升和发展前景的优化,更在于俄罗斯对中俄航道合作态度的变化。而俄罗斯态度的变化是以其在北极大规模军事建设的完成和航道控制权的强化为前提,与俄北极能源开发的推进和以页岩气革命、世界经济中心转移以及乌克兰危机为代表的国际形势的变化密切相关。尽管中国早已有兴趣、有能力成为俄罗斯的航道合作伙伴,但在俄罗斯尚未做好心理准备的条件下,中国并没有急于将该航道纳入自己的国家倡议,这是明智的选择。而随着国际形势的变化,中国顺势而为,积极推动中俄北极合作,将其纳入"一带一路",体现了中国在推进"一带一路"倡议中的效率和务实性。以上情况对当前和今后中国在推进"冰上丝绸之路"建设时如何把握合作节奏和抓住合作机遇具有启示意义。

Russia is the primary partner of China in building “Polar Silk Road”. In recent years,Sino-Russian cooperation in this field has made important progress. In the case that the Northeast Passage is of great value to both China and Russia and the two sides have complementary advantages in this field,the Vision and proposed actions outlined on jointly building Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road ,released by China in 2015 as an important document of the Belt and Road Initiative,does not mention the Passage while referring to the other two sea passages. The Vision for Maritime Cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative ,issued two years later,has made it comparable to the other two sea passages,and together they have become important directions for jointly building "Belt and Road”. The reason for changing the position of the NEP in the Belt and Road Initiative lies not only in the improvement of the actual capacity of the passage and the optimization of its development prospects,but also in the change of Russia s attitude towards Sino-Russian cooperation on NSR. The change in Russia's attitude is premised on the completion of large-scale military construction in the Arctic and the strengthening of the control of the NSR. It is also closely related to the progress of the Arctic energy development,the shale gas revolution,the promotion of Russia's "turning east" strategy,and the impact of the Ukrainian crisis. Under the condition that Russia is not ready to attract non-Arctic States to participate in the development of the NSR,China is not in a hurry to include NSR in its national initiative,although China has long been interested in and has the ability to become Russia's partner on developing NSR. This is a wise choice. With the change of the international situation,China has seized the opportunity of cooperation,actively promote Sino-Russian Arctic cooperation and bring it into "Belt and Road",which reflects China's efficiency and pragmatism in advancing the "Belt and Road" initiative. The above situation is of great significance for China to grasp the pace of cooperation and seize the opportunity of cooperation in promoting the construction of the “Polar Silk Road”. at present and in the future.