稳中有变形势下加强货币政策预期引导和管理的思考

Reflections on Strengthening the Expectation Guidance and Management of Monetary Policy under the Circumstance of Stability with Variations

加强货币政策预期引导和管理是完善我国货币调控体系的内在要求,也是当前稳中有变经济形势下实施稳健货币政策的迫切要求。近些年,人民银行围绕政策承诺、市场沟通、前瞻性指引等,初步构建了预期管理框架体系并发挥了良好作用,但央行分支机构在预期管理方面的作用有待进一步提升。下一步应建立人民银行多层次预期管理机制,通过明确目标机制、加强市场沟通、做好舆情监测、注重分类施策、加强政策协同等措施,充分发挥分支机构在货币政策预期管理中的有效补充作用。

Strengthening the expected guidance and management of monetary policy is an inherent requirement for improving China's monetary regulation system. In the past two years,the new changes in the economic situation have stabilized,and while giving new connotations to the stable monetary policy,they also demand higher requirements for the expected management of China's monetary policy. Based on this background,the central bank has initially established an expected management framework system and exerted good results around policy commitments,market communication,and forward-looking guidance. However,the position of the branches of the central bank in the expected management is not clear and the role is not obvious,which affect the overall effect of the expected management. In the next step,the multi-level expectation management mechanism of the People's Bank of China should be established in order to fully play the the effective complementary role branches have done in the expected management of monetary policy by strengthening market communication and public opinion monitoring,focusing on classification and policy, and strengthening policy coordination.