大型线型工程征迁安置风险的突变评价法评估

Risk Evaluation of Land Requisition and Resettlement of Large Linear Engineering Based on Catastrophe Evaluation Method

影响大型线型工程征迁安置目标顺利实现的因素较多,其相对重要性难以定量判断,导致风险评估结果客观性不足。在构建评价指标体系的基础上,采用突变评价法计算各征迁安置目标的风险值。将该方法应用于南水北调中线工程潮河段征迁安置风险评估,评估结果与模糊评价法较为一致,说明该方法具有较好的可靠性与实用性,为客观分析大型线型工程征迁安置目标风险程度并采取针对性的控制措施提供了新的思路。

There are many factors that affect land requisition and resettlement of large linear engineering,and their relative importance is difficult to be quantitatively judged, resulting in lack of objectivity of risk assessment results. Catastrophe evaluation method was used to calculate the risk values of the resettlement targets based on evaluation index system. Through applied the method to risk evaluation of land requisition and resettlement in the Chaohe section of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project and compared with fuzzy evaluation, the author verified reliability and practicability of the proposed method, which preferably offered the objective risk analysis of land requisition and resettlement of the large linear engineering on the target of effective control measures.