自然灾害对地区出口贸易影响的LASSO估计——以汶川地震为例

Analysis of the Impact of Natural Disasters on Regional Export——LASSO Estimation Based on Wenchuan Earthquake

通过构建四川省出口贸易增长的反事实模型,利用2006年1月至2009年12月的月度进出口数据,使用Lasso估计方法分析了汶川地震的发生对四川省出口贸易增长的影响。分析结果显示,从长期来看,地震灾害的发生对四川省进出口贸易增长没有显著性影响;从短期来看,地震灾害对四川省出口贸易增长存在显著负向影响,地震当月出口增长率下降2. 09%,且影响程度逐渐增大,灾后重建政策能够有效缩短灾后恢复期,并带来对外贸易的较快增长。

This paper analyzes the impact of the Wenchuan earthquake on the growth of export in Sichuan Province using the Lasso method by constructing the counterfactual model of the growth of export in Sichuan Province and using monthly export data from January 2006 to December 2009.The results show that,in the long run,the occurrence of earthquake disasters has no significant impact on the growth of Sichuan’s export.