NFSV方法在草原植被生态系统中的应用研究

The Application of NFSV Method in Grassland Vegetation Ecosystem

为研究草原植被生态系统模式的稳定性,利用非线性强迫奇异向量法(Nonlinear Forcing Singular Vector:NFSV)研究草原植被动力学模型的模式误差。在对草原植被动力学模型进行简化后,利用NFSV法探索由模式非线性引起的模式预报结果不确定性问题,从而分析模式误差对预报结果的影响;通过引入新变量,求解目标函数关于自变量的梯度,在草原植被生态模式的右端增加外强迫项后,对建立的梯度程序进伴随检验、切线性检以及梯度检验;分析加入正、负外强迫后草原植被生态系统分岔图的变化情况,对草原植被生态系统进行敏感性研究。

In order to study the stability of grassland vegetation ecosystem model, this paper uses nonlinear forcing Singular Vector (NFSV) to study the model error of grassland vegetation dynamics model. After simplifying the grassland vegetation dynamics model, the NFSV method is used to explore the uncertainty of the model prediction result caused by the model nonlinearity, so as to analyze the influence of the mode error on the forecast result. By introducing a new variable, the objective function is solved for the independent variable. Gradient, after adding the external forcing term to the right end of the grassland vegetation ecological model, the accompanying test, the cut linear test and the gradient test are applied to the established gradient program;the changes of the tiller map of the grassland vegetation ecosystem after adding positive and negative external forcing are analyzed. Sensitivity studies on grassland vegetation ecosystems. Different ground states are used to study the influence of NFSV method and Forced Singular Vector (FSV) based on linear model on the uncertainty of model prediction results. The results show that NFS method has a great influence on grassland ecosystem and can accelerate grassland vegetation. The speed of evolution of the ecosystem.