气候变暖背景下北京地区生长期气候变化特征

Change characteristics of thermal growing season in Beijing under the background of global warming

为研究气候变暖背景下北京地区生长期变化特征,利用北京1951—2016年逐日气象资料,应用Mann-Kendall检验和线性回归法,分析了北京地区生长期的气候变化特征及其与变暖的联系。结果显示:生长期初日显著提前与生长期终日极显著推迟,导致生长期极显著延长;生长期平均气温和积温分别以0. 21℃/10a、106. 5℃·d/10a的变化率显著增加,而生长期降水量以-31. 4mm/10a的变化率显著减少;生长期指数与平均气温之间存在显著相关,生长期长短与生长期的热量条件一致。尽管存在热岛效应,北京地区生长期气候资源的变化趋势是可信的。北京地区生长期气候变化导致农业热量资源增加,对于提高农产品产量和质量都具有重要意义。

The research aims to clarify the variation characteristics of the thermal growing season in Beijing under the background of global warming.The authors adopted correlation analysis,Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method to study the timing,length,and thermal intensity of the climatic growing season and their relationship with temperature changes based on daily meteorological data of Beijing Observatory stations during 1951-2016.The results showed that:the start of climatic growing season was significantly advanced and the end of climatic growing season was significantly delayed,as a result,the length of the growing season was significantly prolonged.The average temperature and accumulated temperature of climate growing season significantly increased with climate trend rate of 0.21℃/10 a and 106.5℃·d/10 a respectively.However,the precipitation decreased significantly with the linear-change-rate of-31.4 mm/10 a.There was a significant correlation between the indices of climate growing season and the average temperature which showed that the growing season length is consistent with the thermal conditions of the growing season.The results also showed that the trend of thermal growing season in Beijing is credible despite the heat island effect.The long-term climate change leads to an increase in agricultural thermal resources which is of great significance to improve the output and quality of agricultural products.The results have great values to the reasonable use of heat resources and planting structure adjustment.