2018年南亚国家政治外交形势综述

Reports on Political and Diplomatic Situations in South Asia

2018年,南亚各国的政治形势较为复杂且发展不平衡。印度和尼泊尔执政党地位较为稳固且力量有所增强。巴基斯坦、马尔代夫和不丹大选相继落幕,均出现了执政党更替现象。孟加拉国和斯里兰卡执政党与反对党之间的矛盾难以调和,党际关系进一步恶化,政局动荡的风险在加剧。阿富汗重建仍面临较多难题,民主化进程依然任重道远。不丹、斯里兰卡、尼泊尔和印度四国安全局势大有改善,而孟加拉国、巴基斯坦和阿富汗的安全局势自2017年至今更加动荡,且形势恶化的风险有所提高。南亚国家间关系总体稳定发展,印度与马尔代夫关系由紧张转向缓和,印度与尼泊尔关系迅速回暖,巴基斯坦与阿富汗关系也由对峙转向对话合作,其他南亚国家间关系继续发展。南亚国家与俄罗斯、中国和东南亚关系总体向好,印度与美国关系再度提升,巴基斯坦与美国关系更趋紧张;印度、巴基斯坦与俄罗斯关系进一步发展;印度与中国关系改善,其他南亚国家与中国关系稳步发展。

It is complex and uneven for South Asian countries’ political situation in 2018.The governing status of ruling parties in India and Nepal is stable and their power is strengthening.Pakistan,Maldives and Bhutan held elections,and changed governments.Conflicts between ruling parties and opposition parties in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are difficult to reconcile,inter-party relations further deteriorated,and the risks of political instability have intensified.Afghanistan’s reconstruction still faces many difficulties and the democratization process still has a long way to go.The security situations in Bhutan,Sri Lanka,Nepal and India have improved significantly.However,the security situations in Bangladesh,Pakistan and Afghanistan have been more volatile since 2017 and the risks of deterioration have increased.The relationship between South Asian countries is developing steadily on the whole.The relations between India and the Maldives have shifted from tension to relaxation and relations between India and Nepal have recovered rapidly while relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan have also shifted from confrontation to dialogue and cooperation.South Asian countries have generally improved relations with Russia,China and Southeast Asian countries.India's relations with the United States have once again improved,and Pakistan's relations with the United States have become more tense.The relations between India,Pakistan and Russia have been further improved.The relations between India and China have improved,and relations between other South Asian countries and China have developed steadily.