2018年东南亚政治经济形势综述

New Development Trend in Southeast Asia

2018年以来,无论从国别层面,还是从区域层面看,东南亚形势都发生了许多新的变化,但变中有不变,东南亚地区依然是一个充满活力而又较为稳定的区域。政治局势方面,除了部分东南亚国家政治生态发生了一些新变化,其他的总体保持了稳定。马来西亚大选的结果是,反对党希望联盟上台执政,执政61年的执政党被迫下台;越共中央总书记、国家主席首次由一人担任,越南政治权力结构发生重要变化;柬埔寨人民党在大选中获压倒性胜利,菲律宾杜特尔特政府执政进入中期,政治社会压力逐渐增大。经济发展方面,东南亚国家经济增长速度温和上扬,经济形势普遍好于预期,但面临增长放缓的压力。外交方面,东南亚国家更加活跃、务实。越南继续推进与美国、中国、俄罗斯等大国的外交关系,泰国重视开展睦邻外交,积极发展与东盟国家的关系,与缅、老、越、柬加强经贸合作,对外关系稳定发展。印尼成功当选为2019～2020年联合国安理会非常任理事国。杜特尔特上任以来,全面改善了菲律宾与中国的关系,对美关系从疏离到逐渐修复回暖。区域合作方面,面对愈演愈烈的逆全球化暗流,东南亚国家继续推进东盟共同体建设,给地区经济注入活力。

Since 2018,many new changes have taken place in Southeast Asia both at the national and regional levels.But what remain unchanged is that this region is full of vitality and stability.In terms of the political situation,it remains relatively stable on the whole even though some countries have undergone new changes.The Malaysian general election trigged changes in the ruling party in Malaysia that has been in power for 61 years and was forced to step down,and the opposition party hope the PH Coalition to take power.The political structure in Vietnam has undergone significant changes for the first time.The General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Vietnamese Communist Party and the President of the State are the same person.In Cambodian General Election,the People’s Party won majority of votes.In Philippines,the Dutert government confronts with increasing political and social pressure while it enters the mid-term of power.In terms of economic development,the situation is generally better than expected.The economic growth rate of Southeast Asian countries has been rising moderately,but in face of growth slowing down.In terms of diplomacy,Southeast Asian countries are more active and pragmatic.Vietnam continues to promote its relation with great-powers like U.S.A,China and Russia.Thailand attaches great importance to good-neighborliness diplomacy,and its foreign relations have developed steadily.It actively develops relations with ASEAN countries,and strengthens economic and trade cooperation with Myanmar,Laos,Vietnam and Cambodia.Indonesia was elected as a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council from 2019 to 2020,which further enhanced its international influence.Since Dutert took office,the relationship between the Philippines and China has been improved in an all-round way,and the relationship between the Philippines and the United States has gradually recovered from alienation.In terms of regional cooperation,Southeast Asian countries continue to promote the construction of ASEAN community and bring positive energy to regional cooperation in an age of increasing anti-globalizaiton.Looking into the future,the overall political situation of Southeast Asia will remain stable,despite of Indonesia’s and Thailand’s general elections,and Malaysia’s and Philippines’ political pressures.However,the rising tendency of trade protectionism in some countries has brought great uncertainties to world economy and trade growth.The ASEAN economies are relatively open and vulnerable to the impact of the global economy,thus the economic growth will slow down.