2018年南亚地区经济发展形势综述

The Situation and Prospect of Economic Development in South Asia in 2018

与2017年相比,2018年南亚地区经济继续保持强劲增长的态势,仍是全球经济增速最快的地区之一。作为南亚地区大国的印度,随着税制改革的推进、"废钞令"影响的逐步消散、外资的大规模进入以及国内需求的扩大等,经济持续反弹,对南亚经济保持高增长起到了巨大的推动作用。对外贸易方面,由于内外需求增加,南亚进出口总额增长较快,但由于总体上进口增速高于出口增速以及区域内主要货币贬值、国际石油价格上涨等因素,导致贸易赤字进一步扩大;国际收支方面,缓慢的出口增长和侨汇收入难以平衡较高的贸易赤字水平,导致国际收支逆差加剧,外汇储备有所减少;物价水平方面,2018年,印、巴、孟等国的货币贬值使得通胀压力增大,并抬高了南亚总体物价水平,但通胀水平仍处于温和状态。2019年虽然国际及南亚各国仍存在各种不确定因素,但经济保持较高增长仍然可期。

Compared with 2017,South Asia's economic growth is strong in 2018,and it is still one of the fastest growing regions in the world,and continues to promote world economic growth with East Asia.The promotion of the tax reform in India by the major regional countries,the gradual dissipation of the “waste-off order” and the economic rebound have greatly promoted.In terms of foreign trade,the total volume of imports and exports increased significantly.The overall trade deficit was further widened due to the fact that the growth rate of imports was greater than the growth rate of exports,the depreciation of major currencies in the region,and the continued rise in international oil prices.In terms of balance of payments,slow export growth and remittance income are difficult to balance the high trade deficit level,leading to an increase in the balance of payments deficit,which is likely to continue into the next two years.In terms of price level,the currency depreciation in India,Pakistan,Bangladesh and other countries in 2018 made inflationary pressures higher,raising the overall price level in South Asia,and correspondingly reducing foreign exchange reserves,but inflation is still in moderate inflation.Although there are still various uncertainties in the international and South Asian regions,the high economic growth in South Asia in 2019 is still expected.